Update: In the below article, we noted “a lot can change” between now and the end of the week.
A lot has already changed.
The projection for Justin Bieber’s “Purpose” has been substantially upgraded. While One Direction’s “Made In The AM” is also moving faster than expected, analysts now give “Purpose” a very slight edge in the weekly sales race.
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A lot can change between now and the conclusion of the November 13-19 tracking week, but One Direction’s “Made In The AM” is currently on pace to defeat Justin Bieber’s “Purpose” in the pure album sales race.
The total consumption race, which is based on the sum of pure sales, track sales divided by 10 (TEA) and track streams divided by 1500 (SEA), is tracking like a dead heat.
According to very early indicators, Hits Daily Double says “MITAM” is on track for a pure weekly sales total of 375-400,000. Bieber’s “Purpose” is tracking for a 340-365,000 bow.
While the One Direction album entered the home stretch with a clear lead in iTunes pre-orders, Bieber’s “Purpose” began to close the gap over the past few days. It continues to maintain a lead on iTunes, and the expectation is that the two albums will have generated very similar digital sales totals by the end of the tracking week.
The 1D advantage will thus come from physical retail purchases. A multi-cover promotion is helping “MIATM” at Target, while the album is also proving popular with Wal-Mart shoppers.
— With TEA and SEA included, the two albums are on track for first week consumption totals in the 400-425,000 range.
