Betting odds for the “Big Four” Grammy Awards have not remained completely steady over the past two months. The betting favorites have, however, remained constant.
Billie Eilish remains the frontrunner to win Album of the Year and Best New Artist, while Lil Nas X & Billy Ray Cyrus and Lizzo are the respective favorites for Record of the Year and Song of the Year.
Oddsmakers have generally fared decently at the Grammy Awards, but there have been some noteworthy misfires. Last year, they correctly favored Kacey Musgraves’ “Golden Hour” for Album and Childish Gambino’s “This Is America” for Record but incorrectly leaned toward Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper’s “Shallow” for Song (“This Is America” won) and H.E.R. for Best New Artist (Dua Lipa won).
2018 was a bad year for oddsmakers, with only one of the four favorites winning (Alessia Cara for Best New Artist). Oddsmakers did not anticipate Bruno Mars’ sweep of the other three categories, expecting “Despacito” to win for Record and Song and Kendrick Lamar’s “DAMN.” to take home the Album prize.
They went three-for-four in the 2017 races, correctly selecting Adele’s “Hello” for Record and Song and Chance The Rapper for Best New Artist. They did not, however, expect Adele’s “25” to top Beyonce’s “Lemonade” for Album.
Odds makers also went three-for-four in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016.
How will they fare this year? We will find out when the show airs at 8PM ET/5PM PT on January 26. For now, review the latest odds from Bovada.
(Odds explanation: Negative number = how much you have to bet to win $100; Positive number = how much you win if you bet $100 / Lower numbers reflect a stronger probability of winning)
Album of the Year
Billie Eilish – WHEN WE ALL FALL ASLEEP, WHERE DO WE GO? (-220)
Lizzo – Cuz I Love You (+400)
Ariana Grande – thank u, next (+475)
Lana Del Rey – Norman Fn Rockwell (+700)
Bon Iver – i,i (+2500)
Vampire Weekend – Father of the Bride (+3500)
Lil Nas X – 7 (+4000)
H.E.R. – I Used To Know Her (+4000)
Record of the Year
Lil Nas X & Billy Ray Cyrus – Old Town Road (-175)
Billie Eilish – bad guy (+175)
Lizzo – Truth Hurts (+625)
Post Malone & Swae Lee – Sunflower (+1800)
Ariana Grande – 7 rings (+2500)
H.E.R. – Hard Place (+3500)
Khalid – Talk (+3500)
Bon Iver – Hey, Ma (+4500)
Song of the Year
Lizzo – Truth Hurts (+120)
Billie Eilish – bad guy (+175)
Taylor Swift – Lover (+500)
Lewis Capaldi – Someone You Loved (+550)
Lady Gaga – Always Remember Us This Way (+1200)
H.E.R. – Hard Place (+3000)
Lana Del Rey – Norman Fn Rockwell (+3500)
Tanya Tucker – Bring My Flowers Now (+4000)
Best New Artist
Billie Eilish (-400)
Lizzo (+160)
Lil Nas X (+1100)
Maggie Rogers (+2800)
ROSALIA (+3000)
Tank and the Bangas (+4000)
Yola (+4500)
Black Pumas (+5000)
