Various Factors Explain Pia Toscano’s Shock “American Idol” Elimination

Undoubtedly one of the most shocking, unexpected eliminations ever on the show, Pia Toscano’s “American Idol” departure sent shockwaves through the show’s massive, diehard fan contingent. Though not everyone believed she was indeed the frontrunner to win, most assumed she was on a track that at least led as far as the “American Idol” finale. And no one believed “9th place” was going to describe the vocal powerhouse’s legacy on the reality juggernaut.

Yet the fact that no one realistically would have predicted Pia’s elimination does not necessitate acceptance of lines like “this makes no sense” or “America got it wrong.” Yes, both statements are indeed accurate to a degree, but there are also some strong explanatory factors that put Pia’s elimination into context. “Surprise” and “robbery” need not be synonymous when discussing an “American Idol” outcome, and this rundown assesses why viewers, perhaps, should have been less taken aback by the beautiful singer’s early elimination.

The “fans got complacent” argument – The most overused “American Idol” results excuse definitely has relevance in the Pia Toscano discussion. Generally viewed as the best vocalist in the competition, the likable, attractive contestant also went a step further this week by delivering the uptempo number fans and critics had long been craving. The performance was not perfect, but given all the factors working in her favor, if there were ever a week to assume her other fans would come through with dials and texts, it was this week.

The “talent is amazing this year” argument – Undoubtedly playing a role in the outrage is the assumption that ninth place is a terrible finish on “American Idol.” If one thinks about how insignificant past ninth place finishers like Ramiele Malubay, Gina Glocksen, Camile Velasco and Julia DeMato were in comparison to their castmates, it seems like an absolute travesty that Pia Toscano is now in that same club.

But the talent is the best it has ever been this season, and that means that contestants who would have likely been odds-on favorites in past seasons are going to leave comparatively early this year. Of the remaining contestants, all but Stefano Langone, Haley Reinhart and Paul McDonald have been frequently included in “frontrunner” discussions, and Reinhart and Langone, though not considered as popular as the others, each have at least one “performance of the night” to their credit this season (McDonald, meanwhile, has a very unique style). With no bad contestants and so many great ones, past connotations associated with “Idol” rankings no longer apply.

Many might believe Pia’s elimination was the most shocking possibility this week, but would fans have truly embraced a James Durbin or Scotty McCreery departure this week? What about Haley Reinhart after two consecutive slam dunk performances? When there are that many candidates for the “shock” elimination, it gets to the point at which nothing should truly be considered shocking.

The “talent is not only good but niche-friendly” argument – The quality of the talent this season is not restricted to vocal or performance ability–adding value is the fact that so many appeal strongly to segments of the American populace. James Durbin “owns” the rocker market. Haley Reinhart and Casey Abrams have the female and male shares of the soul/cool/edgy realm. Lauren Alaina and Scotty McCreery both have a piece of the teeny bopper and country markets, with Scotty having a stronger footing in country and Lauren leaning more towards pop. Jacob Lusk pulls in fans of minority artists. Because so many contestants have complete control over key demographic groups and genres, there are likely less undecided votes up for grabs. If contestants do not give their genre fans/target audiences reason to vote passionately and do not dominate the performance night to such an extent that they claim the limited supply of “open” votes, they are going to be in danger.

Pia, in particular, did not seem to “own” a lane the same way her peers did. She was probably dominating the “performance” votes and also claiming a fair share of the pop/mainstream female fans, but that breakdown also left her susceptible to losing votes when other performances were better and vulnerable to a vote-split with Haley and Lauren, fellow attractive female contestants.

The “wrong people were good and bad” argument – When “Idol” has several strong frontrunners and a few dark horse/”fodder” contestants, any departures from this breakdown create the risk of a shock elimination. In the case of this season, as long as Pia, Casey, Jacob, James, Lauren and Scotty delivered better performances than Stefano, Haley and Paul, the latter three would probably all go first (thereby creating the least “shocking” eliminatino order).

But that didn’t exactly happen Tuesday. For the second week in a row, Haley was arguably the best performer of the night (certainly in the top tier). Paul, whose fans were already riled up after his trip to the bottom two last week, received praise for his performance. Lauren, meanwhile, probably seemed the most vulnerable based on lukewarm judge comments, putting her presumed-strong fanbase on guard.

With one of the frontrunners, especially one who likely shares some fans with Pia, appearing to be in dire needs of votes and two of the dark horse contestants in the vote-getting spotlight, that undoubtedly put Pia in danger.

And while it is unclear, for instance, why Pia would have received less votes than Stefano, whatever fanbase Stefano has would have likely seen no reason to hold off on votes. He performed at his usual caliber in his usual style, and as one of the presumed-“fodder” contestants, his small fanbase knows it probably always has to vote its heart out (soon, it is clear, that will still not be enough). Plus, there are still SEVEN other contestants in this thing–breaking it down to Pia vs. Stefano totally ignores the degree of uncertainty that is already built into a vote of that scale.

What is clear, though, is that Pia was going to be in danger based on the dynamic. If Lauren had been a bit better and Haley considerably worse, the outcome might have changed.

The “Pia was a ‘moment’ contestant and hasn’t had one recently” argument – Like it or not, all is not held equal on “American Idol.” Expectations, in particular, greatly differ from contestant to contestant.

By setting the bar high early on, Pia was going to lose some steam if she did not continuously deliver those textbook “moment” performances that score a standing ovation from the judges and crowd. Simply singing well wasn’t going to be enough–though he lasted a lot longer, season eight contestant Adam Lambert, who was far more dominant relative to his competition than Pia, occasionally hit voter snags due to the fact that he reached a point at which topping his prior performances was impossible. Competing on a much more difficult season, Pia was going to struggle with this effect to an even greater extent.

Theoretically, “River Deep, Mountain High,” her first true uptempo number, could have provided the playing field for a ‘moment’ performance. But while most seemed to applaud the performance, concerns about Pia’s energy, personality and dancing/movement prevailed. It thus, ultimately, felt like another great Pia performance, but the growth, personal development and personal milestone aspects of a successful “Idol” journey remained absent.

Other contestants, notably Scotty, are able to coast on middle-of-the-road, fairly-safe performances because they have such a clearly-defined, passionate fanbase. Scotty, like a Kris Allen, will survive for a few weeks simply on the value of his target audience. Then, like Kris, he will be in position for a ‘moment’ to put him over the edge and ready him for an “Idol” victory.

Pia did not have that luxury. If she wasn’t always raising the bar, she was ultimately going to be deemed redundant, safe and boring. Yes, those labels resulted in an elimination far earlier than expected, but for her all talent, she was not going to break deeply into the top five without several more “moments.”

The “Pia was not as amazing as people think” argument – Likely to be the one that angers readers and spurs some nasty comments, this argument remains worthy of consideration.

As noted, for her all vocal ability, she was not a strong, energetic performer. She had no dance moves. Her facials were sometimes “in her own world” rather than playing to the audience (for evidence, one can even look at her goodbye performance Thursday). And, though she came across as likable and confident, she did not have the unique, quirky personality that often best resonates with “Idol” fans.

Was she only the ninth best contestant on the show? Absolutely not. But if one is not firing on every cylinder, it gets hard to claim “robbery” amid a strong pack of contestants.

The “bias” argument – Some have raised concern about the gender issue–after all, Pia marks the fifth female in a row to get eliminated from this year’s competition. But while the female skew is definitely going to slant things in favor of male contestants, even the most recent seasons (the last three of which were won by the notorious “white guy with guitar” contestants) have proven that females can go far in this competition if they click with the audience. Being a woman might not have HELPED Pia, but it’s unlikely people opted not to vote for her specifically because she was a female.

What do you think? Shocking or not, are there reasons why Pia’s elimination makes sense?