“The Dark Knight Rises” will collect a hefty chunk of change this weekend as it clings to its number one box office spot, but early indications are that the film’s weekend gross will again underwhelm.
Update: “TDKR” landed on the low end of forecasts Friday, posting just $18 million in receipts. It now looks unlikely to even reach $60 million for the weekend. “Step Up Revolution” slightly edged “The Watch” with a $5 million to $4.5 million victory, although analysts expect “The Watch” to overtake the dancing film by the end of the weekend. Neither, however, will impress with its opening weekend gross.
Obviously, some will blame the highly-rated Olympic opening ceremonies for the disappointing Friday numbers, but that notion will only be proven if the films seriously bounce back on Saturday and Sunday, and no one is really expecting that.
Coming on the heels of an opening weekend that just barely beat that attained by predecessor “The Dark Knight” in 2008, “Rises” is pacing for an $18-20 million Friday and about $60 million for the weekend, according to Variety. That represents a drop of more than 60% from the film’s debut gross of $160.9 million, which ranks third on the all-time list.
Though $160.9 million is an immensely impressive total and certainly nothing at which to sneeze, the number was considered slightly underwhelming given the film’s years of intense hype and the fact that “The Avengers,” which did not have a direct predecessor as critically acclaimed and commercially successful as “The Dark Knight,” drew more than $200 million for its opener this summer.
At the time, conventional wisdom said to blame some of the disappointment on the tragic Aurora, Colorado shootings, which polls and common sense suggest deterred some potential moviegoers from attending the cinema.
But if that were true, the second weekend should have provided a compensatory overperformance as the easing of safety concerns encouraged those deterred moviegoers to finally make the trip.
If the $60 million estimate holds, “Rises” not only failed to overperform but actually underperformed against the expected trajectory. Its 63% drop would greatly exceed that for week two of “Avengers” (down 50% to $103 million) and “The Dark Knight” (down 53% to $75.2 million).
Given the steeper than expected decline, it is fair to either conclude that the safety concerns are still scaring away interested moviegoers or that shooting or no shooting, excitement for “The Dark Knight Rises” was simply never going to top that for “The Avengers” or even the previous “Dark Knight” film.
— Of course, $60 million looks like a total slam dunk in comparison to the projected total for critically-panned comedy “The Watch.”
The film, which has a mere 15% score on Rotten Tomatoes, is on pace for just $14-16 million this weekend, below even the conservative, reduced projections that came out this week.
Advertising for the film, which stars Ben Stiller, Vince Vaughn and Jonah Hill and the screenwriting of Seth Rogen, never resonated with the masses, and the result is a total not remotely befitting a summer comedy with such recognizable leads.
— “Step Up: Revolution,” meanwhile, is likely to net about $14 million this weekend. That marks a slight decline from the $15.8 million haul attained by predecessor “Step Up 3D.”
