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Various Factors Explain Pia Toscano’s Shock “American Idol” Elimination

Undoubtedly one of the most shocking, unexpected eliminations ever on the show, Pia Toscano’s “American Idol” departure sent shockwaves through the show’s massive, diehard fan contingent. Though not everyone believed she was indeed the frontrunner to win, most assumed she was on a track that at least led as far as the “American Idol” finale. And no one believed “9th place” was going to describe the vocal powerhouse’s legacy on the reality juggernaut.

Yet the fact that no one realistically would have predicted Pia’s elimination does not necessitate acceptance of lines like “this makes no sense” or “America got it wrong.” Yes, both statements are indeed accurate to a degree, but there are also some strong explanatory factors that put Pia’s elimination into context. “Surprise” and “robbery” need not be synonymous when discussing an “American Idol” outcome, and this rundown assesses why viewers, perhaps, should have been less taken aback by the beautiful singer’s early elimination.

The “fans got complacent” argument – The most overused “American Idol” results excuse definitely has relevance in the Pia Toscano discussion. Generally viewed as the best vocalist in the competition, the likable, attractive contestant also went a step further this week by delivering the uptempo number fans and critics had long been craving. The performance was not perfect, but given all the factors working in her favor, if there were ever a week to assume her other fans would come through with dials and texts, it was this week.

The “talent is amazing this year” argument – Undoubtedly playing a role in the outrage is the assumption that ninth place is a terrible finish on “American Idol.” If one thinks about how insignificant past ninth place finishers like Ramiele Malubay, Gina Glocksen, Camile Velasco and Julia DeMato were in comparison to their castmates, it seems like an absolute travesty that Pia Toscano is now in that same club.

But the talent is the best it has ever been this season, and that means that contestants who would have likely been odds-on favorites in past seasons are going to leave comparatively early this year. Of the remaining contestants, all but Stefano Langone, Haley Reinhart and Paul McDonald have been frequently included in “frontrunner” discussions, and Reinhart and Langone, though not considered as popular as the others, each have at least one “performance of the night” to their credit this season (McDonald, meanwhile, has a very unique style). With no bad contestants and so many great ones, past connotations associated with “Idol” rankings no longer apply.

Many might believe Pia’s elimination was the most shocking possibility this week, but would fans have truly embraced a James Durbin or Scotty McCreery departure this week? What about Haley Reinhart after two consecutive slam dunk performances? When there are that many candidates for the “shock” elimination, it gets to the point at which nothing should truly be considered shocking.

The “talent is not only good but niche-friendly” argument – The quality of the talent this season is not restricted to vocal or performance ability–adding value is the fact that so many appeal strongly to segments of the American populace. James Durbin “owns” the rocker market. Haley Reinhart and Casey Abrams have the female and male shares of the soul/cool/edgy realm. Lauren Alaina and Scotty McCreery both have a piece of the teeny bopper and country markets, with Scotty having a stronger footing in country and Lauren leaning more towards pop. Jacob Lusk pulls in fans of minority artists. Because so many contestants have complete control over key demographic groups and genres, there are likely less undecided votes up for grabs. If contestants do not give their genre fans/target audiences reason to vote passionately and do not dominate the performance night to such an extent that they claim the limited supply of “open” votes, they are going to be in danger.

Pia, in particular, did not seem to “own” a lane the same way her peers did. She was probably dominating the “performance” votes and also claiming a fair share of the pop/mainstream female fans, but that breakdown also left her susceptible to losing votes when other performances were better and vulnerable to a vote-split with Haley and Lauren, fellow attractive female contestants.

The “wrong people were good and bad” argument – When “Idol” has several strong frontrunners and a few dark horse/”fodder” contestants, any departures from this breakdown create the risk of a shock elimination. In the case of this season, as long as Pia, Casey, Jacob, James, Lauren and Scotty delivered better performances than Stefano, Haley and Paul, the latter three would probably all go first (thereby creating the least “shocking” eliminatino order).

But that didn’t exactly happen Tuesday. For the second week in a row, Haley was arguably the best performer of the night (certainly in the top tier). Paul, whose fans were already riled up after his trip to the bottom two last week, received praise for his performance. Lauren, meanwhile, probably seemed the most vulnerable based on lukewarm judge comments, putting her presumed-strong fanbase on guard.

With one of the frontrunners, especially one who likely shares some fans with Pia, appearing to be in dire needs of votes and two of the dark horse contestants in the vote-getting spotlight, that undoubtedly put Pia in danger.

And while it is unclear, for instance, why Pia would have received less votes than Stefano, whatever fanbase Stefano has would have likely seen no reason to hold off on votes. He performed at his usual caliber in his usual style, and as one of the presumed-“fodder” contestants, his small fanbase knows it probably always has to vote its heart out (soon, it is clear, that will still not be enough). Plus, there are still SEVEN other contestants in this thing–breaking it down to Pia vs. Stefano totally ignores the degree of uncertainty that is already built into a vote of that scale.

What is clear, though, is that Pia was going to be in danger based on the dynamic. If Lauren had been a bit better and Haley considerably worse, the outcome might have changed.

The “Pia was a ‘moment’ contestant and hasn’t had one recently” argument – Like it or not, all is not held equal on “American Idol.” Expectations, in particular, greatly differ from contestant to contestant.

By setting the bar high early on, Pia was going to lose some steam if she did not continuously deliver those textbook “moment” performances that score a standing ovation from the judges and crowd. Simply singing well wasn’t going to be enough–though he lasted a lot longer, season eight contestant Adam Lambert, who was far more dominant relative to his competition than Pia, occasionally hit voter snags due to the fact that he reached a point at which topping his prior performances was impossible. Competing on a much more difficult season, Pia was going to struggle with this effect to an even greater extent.

Theoretically, “River Deep, Mountain High,” her first true uptempo number, could have provided the playing field for a ‘moment’ performance. But while most seemed to applaud the performance, concerns about Pia’s energy, personality and dancing/movement prevailed. It thus, ultimately, felt like another great Pia performance, but the growth, personal development and personal milestone aspects of a successful “Idol” journey remained absent.

Other contestants, notably Scotty, are able to coast on middle-of-the-road, fairly-safe performances because they have such a clearly-defined, passionate fanbase. Scotty, like a Kris Allen, will survive for a few weeks simply on the value of his target audience. Then, like Kris, he will be in position for a ‘moment’ to put him over the edge and ready him for an “Idol” victory.

Pia did not have that luxury. If she wasn’t always raising the bar, she was ultimately going to be deemed redundant, safe and boring. Yes, those labels resulted in an elimination far earlier than expected, but for her all talent, she was not going to break deeply into the top five without several more “moments.”

The “Pia was not as amazing as people think” argument – Likely to be the one that angers readers and spurs some nasty comments, this argument remains worthy of consideration.

As noted, for her all vocal ability, she was not a strong, energetic performer. She had no dance moves. Her facials were sometimes “in her own world” rather than playing to the audience (for evidence, one can even look at her goodbye performance Thursday). And, though she came across as likable and confident, she did not have the unique, quirky personality that often best resonates with “Idol” fans.

Was she only the ninth best contestant on the show? Absolutely not. But if one is not firing on every cylinder, it gets hard to claim “robbery” amid a strong pack of contestants.

The “bias” argument – Some have raised concern about the gender issue–after all, Pia marks the fifth female in a row to get eliminated from this year’s competition. But while the female skew is definitely going to slant things in favor of male contestants, even the most recent seasons (the last three of which were won by the notorious “white guy with guitar” contestants) have proven that females can go far in this competition if they click with the audience. Being a woman might not have HELPED Pia, but it’s unlikely people opted not to vote for her specifically because she was a female.

What do you think? Shocking or not, are there reasons why Pia’s elimination makes sense?

Written by Brian Cantor

Brian Cantor is the editor-in-chief for Headline Planet. He has been a leading reporter in the music, movie, television and sporting spaces since 2002.

Brian's reporting has been cited by major websites like BuzzFeed, Billboard, the New Yorker and The Fader -- and shared by celebrities like Taylor Swift, Justin Bieber and Nicki Minaj.

Contact Brian at brian.cantor[at]headlineplanet.com.

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  1. I agree whole-heartedly with your article and assessment. I was very disappointed with Pia on performance night because I thought that her rendition of “River Deep Mountain High” would finally give her the opportunity to knock it out the park with an awesome performance. However, regardless of how well she sang it (which was expected)…she did not use the opportunity to show her personality and her star quality. In effect, she actually showed that she had no star quality. A great artist doesn’t only sing well and as a matter of fact there are some very successful artists in the music industry whose vocal talent doesn’t come close to some of American Idol constestants even on a bad day, but that doesn’t matter. Artists like Brittany Spears, in my opinion, who lack vocal genius make up for it in their ability to entertain and move a crowd. People pay for tickets to concerts to see a good show not just watch someone who can sing well. Pia was a genius with her voice but she had no talent as a true musician. I am not surprised that she went home and am glad because even though her fellow contestants might not be as vocally strong as her they took the competition more serious than Pia by giving it their all in every aspect on the stage. I wish Pia the best and know that she can make it as a recording artist, but as a performing artist on stage??? Eh, not so much.

    • I was shocked at the departure of Pia. She has an amazing voice. I’m sure at some point in time she’ll learn how to move on stage. However, look at the GREAT Ella Fitzgerald, Sarah Vaughn to name just a couple. They didn’t move but remember how successful they were? Come on America – get real. Look at the talent more closely before voting.

      The is the first season I really invested time watching American Idol. I really think there are some wonderful singers this season, however, I am now done watching the show for this season. Not sure what will happen next season. I was shocked and appalled at what transpired last night. Very sad to see Pia go. I wish her all the best and guarantee she will make something of herself over the next few years. My hope is that she’ll be swooped up by a recording studio and show America the talent she truly has.

      Pia all the best to you – you deserve much more than what you received last night.

  2. Here I will make it real easy to answer your questions of why Pia was eliminated. Think about who the voters are. Do you honestly think that the adults in America vote??? Other than the contestants friends and family the majority of American adults don’t vote. Now that brings use to who does vote. Young kids are who the main voters are and not in general either. The young guys don’t vote so its just young girls. Do you honestly think that a young teenage girl is going to vote for a beautiful talented lady like Pia. Really think about it!! It is unfortunately second nature for these young girl voters to be the little B’s that they are. Did you honestly expect any different. Why do you think that we have not had a female winner in years?? It is sad but unfortunately American idol is not really a talent contest but a popularity contest voted by high-school girls who are mostly all superficial phonies. But if it makes you feel any better its really not even the young girls who are at fault. It is the unfortunate characteristic that all females posses but none would ever admit it…yea like you who just finished reading this!! Think about it!!

    • There’s merit to this, but at the same time, look at Katy Perry. Hot chick with a good voice. Guys undoubtedly love her. But who buys her music?

      Most “hot” female pop stars primarily sell to women, which makes it hard for me to believe that females cannot do well on American Idol (and that’s in addition to the fact that women have won and, even in recent years, continue to go deep into the competition)

      • Katy Perry is an established singer with a recording contract and records out! Adult women, professional women, and sophisticated women are buying her stuff. This is NOT the demographic who votes on American Idol!

        When AI FIRST started, adult women were voting, but as with most contests, it’s the young ones who’ve taken over the voting. These young girls are NOT going to vote for other pretty girls. You’ll see, that young country singer boy will win, because he’s who this “Twilight” crowd will vote for.

        • Katy’s music is popular with many demographics, but she has LOADS of tween/teen female fans.

          I don’t doubt that Scotty is the odds-on favorite to win at this point. I also don’t doubt that there is a degree of resentment from insecure women towards “hot chicks” on this show and in the entertainment world (not to mention life) in general.

          But I look at Pia as more of a Katharine McPhee type. Certainly prettier (at least than Katharine was on the show) and more talented, but more ‘beautiful’ hot than ‘stripper/porn star’ hot. I don’t think you’d find a straight man on the planet who doesn’t find her remotely good-looking, but I also view her look as the kind of look that will probably rate higher with straight females than straight males. I think people see her as a classier, glamorous beauty (as in proof that you can be hot without whoring around), and that tends to resonate really well with females.

          It’s also important to note that there are tons of middle-aged fans who watch this show, and there always have been. Appealing to power-voting tweens has always been a successful strategy, but one can win primarily appealing to 18-49.

          I do, however, 100% agree with your point on the judges and probably should have included something like that in the write-up. When the judges claim to love every contestant, how can they act like some don’t deserve to go through?

  3. You are wrong in dismissing the fact that women hate other pretty and talented women! THAT is why she wasn’t voted for.

    Not to mention the judges got her eliminated by pointing out flawed aspects of her performance, but letting other singers go without any critical comment! People in general are clueless about who to vote for, and the judges led her to be slaughtered!

  4. I am a young 25 years old woman that voted for Pia 580 times last night. But unfortunately, most people around me that are the same age don’t watch Idol. If they watch tey don’t vote. The older they get the less they vote. They really don’t take the show that seriously. I have to pay my sister last week to vote. She does not care. I forgot to do that this week, thinking she was safe. When the older people vote they do it 5 to 10 times so they not going to vote 500 times. So,guys like my husband say american idol is a girl thing if they watch they don’t vote. So, we have 15-18 years old teenagers left to vote. Now those kids don’t understand constructive critiscms. You gave the only negative comment to Pia that mean she is not good. Simon used to direct to the best. He will not praise the weakest ones believe me like those jugdes are doing. So, this is the end of this show hopefully. I am done pratically. For me that’s it. Looking forward to the X factor and the Voice maybe will be better.

  5. I HOPE Pia is reading this right now. She WAS the American Idol. Yes she was growing in performance in terms of playing to audience, but she had it all. James Durbin is a top notch one, but he doesn’t have Pia’s voice when singing at a regular level in a ballad tone. Pia was like CELINE DION. I cried yesterday watching her lose. Pia, if you’re reading this, you go out there, and make sure you have a career. You will come out a winner, you will get picked up, and could surpass any fame or success idol would have brought you. You are AMAZING. Please keep going so that American can see you shine soon.

    • Pia is a classy act-very similar to Celine Dion and even Barbara Streisand. I strongly believe that she will have a great career in music. She is not a “showy” performer, but when I’m listening to CD’s in my car-who cares about show? I want to hear that flawless beauty of a voice that has tremendous range, fexlibility, control and passion. And you certainly don’t have to win American Idol to prove how great you are. My gosh-she’s in the top 9! You go Pia- I love ya!

  6. And one other thing, I do believe people felt she was safe. I think Jacob is amazing too, but his market may reach a certain type that won’t surpass in the end because of his gospel way. Possibly might. But with Pia, I think people thought she had it. I just really hope from the bottom of my heart, she gets a representative, gets out there, and allows the industry to bring her to the top. She deserves it, I love her story, and I love her, truly. I’ve never been so passionate or upset, ever, on America Idol, this was beyond shocking. I’m praying for Pia. She’s a star. America messed up.

  7. I was not shocked by the elimination. The judges had put Pia at diva level that every time she performed it almost oozed attitude. Whether she wanted it that way or not. She (Pia) and Stefano are great ballad singers, but cannot sing the upbeat songs. For example Pia, she draws out her lyrics and it seems her lyrics are not matching up with the music. Just take a listen again, her lyrics are being strung out a hair too long. This is why she and Stefano would not win. If you can’t sing the Pop songs you will not make it as an artist. The only singers that have any hope in making it as a recording artist are James, Scotty and maybe Lauren.

    James has the Adam Lambert voice, if he can sing the softer notes a little better. Scotty has the pure country voice that will do well in that genre the same can be said for Lauren.

    For the rest of the singers who have no shot at being a recording artist, Jacob doesn’t sing he yells and bellows his songs. Casey should have been gone already. Haley just sucks her voice is awful, and Paul, you either love him or hate him. Sorry I’m in the later category I just don’t understand it.

    Look at the past two winner Kris Allen and Lee Dewyze, both albums bombed in Sales. So the judges need to do these singers some justice and fairly critique them. Quite blowing smoke up the A$$ and do so actual judging. God this show misses Simon.

  8. Honestly, Pia wasn’t my favorite contestant on the show. I thought she was a gorgeous woman with a perfect voice, but for my tastes, she just wasn’t cutting it. I always appreciated her performances for what she did, but didn’t ever feel a strong connection with her, which I think was her fatal flaw. She never did much to let the audience know who she was and where she stood. There are other contestants on the show who, while I don’t care for their style, I know who they are and connect with them in some way. Pia just didn’t have that.

    Her voice was phenomenal, but when it comes down to it, how many people would buy an album full of ballads? She just seemed to get boring at times, to me anyways.

    And besides, at this point in the competition, regardless of where they get kicked out, if they are good enough you know that SOMEONE will sign them and give them a deal. So, while it’s hard for some people to let her go, I’m sure she’ll be just fine.

  9. While it is interesting to theorize I guess we’ll never know exactly why this happened, though we may learn a little bit more if the voting details per show are released at the end of the season.

    I am wondering: if Pia was somehow given another chance on the show, would she take it? I think she shouldn’t and wouldn’t. This outcome, as sad and shocking it may be, does not take away anything from Pia’s amazing vocal talent and stunning beauty. So she’s not America’s next pop idol, this certainly won’t be the last we hear and see of her.

    I am also wondering what rule changes will result from this, like maybe giving the audience and judges a 50-50 stake in the results or deciding between the bottom two like on X Factor. I’m sure that the judges will be thinking what they have could have done differently to prevent this outcome. Surely this must be particularly hard on J-Lo, for whom Idol has been a rather emotional roller coaster.. Will she still feel like doing for another season after this? I doubt it..

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