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Garth Brooks Sales Estimates Reduced to 125-140K (Updated)

Garth Brooks [ABC]

Update: An updated round of sales estimates suggests Garth Brooks’ “Man Against Machine” will move 125-145,000 copies in its first week of release.

Dramatically below initial estimates, the total will rank third among those for new releases. Per Hits Daily Double, Foo Fighters’ “Sonic Highways” will lead among newcomers with 180-200,000, while Pink Floyd’s “The Endless River” should outsell the Brooks album with a total of 140-160,000.

The estimate for Taylor Swift’s holdover “1989” has meanwhile been upgraded.  A third week total in the 300,000 range is now possible for the album, which is a lock to retain its #1 position.

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Update: Things continue to look discouraging for Garth Brooks’ “Man Against Machine.”  Per Hits Daily Double, the latest round of data suggests an opening week sales total in the 120-140,000 range.  Pink Floyd’s “The Endless River” is on target for a similar debut count.

Foo Fighters’ “Sonic Highways” remains a solid bet for about 200,000, while the trajectory of predecessor “Red” suggests Taylor Swift’s “1989” will move an additional 225,000 copies in its third week.

Regarding the Brooks total, it is worth noting that GhostTunes data has not yet been distributed.  Interestingly, GhostTunes sales information for other albums has apparently been reported, which raises questions about the silence on “Man Against Machine.”

“Meanwhile, wonderers are wondering why the Ghost Tunes numbers aren’t being reported, especially since other titles on the site apparently are reporting,” writes Hits Daily Double.

The implication–and word from other industry sources–is that the volume of GhostTunes purchases is not significant enough to brighten the outlook for the country icon’s comeback album.

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Two weeks ago, the first wave of estimates dramatically understated interest in Taylor Swift’s “1989.”

This week, it dramatically overstated buyer excitement over the week’s key new releases.

After initially pegging Garth Brooks’ “Man Against Machine” for a bow in the 250-300,000 range, Hits Daily Double is now eying a debut week total in the disappointing 140,000 range.

While numerous factors are at play–the lack of a hit single, a greater-than-expected reduction in profile, the changing country landscape–analysts will certainly obsess over the decision to rely exclusively on GhostTunes for digital distribution.

Insofar as the physical version of “Man Against Machine” was expected to be a particularly strong performer, only the misguided would attribute the sole blame to the GhostTunes initiative. Clearly, the entire project did not resonate as well as anticipated.

With Garth’s album now out of the competitive mix, Foo Fighters’ “Sonic Highways” is expected to rank as the week’s best-selling newcomer. It was not, however, immune from a projection downgrade. After first looking for a sum in the 225-250,000 range, the industry is now expecting a first week total of around 200,000.

Among all releases, Taylor Swift’s “1989” now looks like a safe bet to reign for a third consecutive week. The album should move at least 225,000 more copies this week.

Pink Floyd’s “The Endless River” is tracking in the same territory as the Brooks album.

Written by Brian Cantor

Brian Cantor is the editor-in-chief for Headline Planet. He has been a leading reporter in the music, movie, television and sporting spaces since 2002.

Brian's reporting has been cited by major websites like BuzzFeed, Billboard, the New Yorker and The Fader -- and shared by celebrities like Taylor Swift, Justin Bieber and Nicki Minaj.

Contact Brian at brian.cantor[at]headlineplanet.com.

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