Harmony Korine’s “Spring Breakers” opened wide Friday, and box office buffs should brace for a wide variety of narratives concerning its performance.
Despite a year’s worth of photos and buzz about Disney and ABC Family Stars Selena Gomez, Vanessa Hudgens and Ashley Benson donning skimpy bikinis for their first risque roles, “Spring Breakers” was never expected to be a major box office contender.
But the film’s impressive platform release last week, combined with raves over star James Franco’s performance and lingering buzz about the aforementioned actresses “going adult,” produced some optimism for this weekend. Suddenly, box office analysts and bloggers were throwing forecasts in the $9-10 million range.
A juggernaut forecast? Absolutely not. But considering the nature of the film, the nature of Harmony Korine’s appeal and the distribution strategy, such a total would represent a very solid performance.
Based on Friday’s returns, “Spring Breakers” is unlikely to reach that mark.
Early reports peg its Friday gross in the $2 million range, which would indicate a $5-6 million bow for the weekend.
Due to the film’s limitations, it is impossible to write that total off as “terrible.” But such a modest debut would suggest that late reports of the film’s surging buzz were overblown, and in that sense, represent an underwhelming take for the film.
Outlets like THR are calling even a $6 million forecast a “victory,” but such a viewpoint fails to account for the lengthy buzz period, late waves of interest and the overperformance in last week’s perform release.
— More certain ahead of Friday’s opening was a lukewarm performance for Tina Fey and Paul Rudd’s “Admission.” Their comedy, which neither generated significant fan buzz nor strong reviews from critics, will earn a little over $2 million Friday for an estimated $7 million weekend haul.
— Though its margin of victory over “Olympus Has Fallen” was light on Friday, “The Croods” (~$12 million in day one) will ride weekend matinee interest to around $40 million for its first three days and an easy box office victory.
Still, with $10 million on Friday and expectations of between $25-30 million for the weekend, “Olympus” will perform admirably in its own right.
