Update: The adults 18-49 demographic number was about as low as could be expected given the 4.4 overnight metered market number. “The Firm” premiered to a tepid 1.4 in the demo.
More often than not this season, analysts have learned to wait until the fast nationals come out before issuing a verdict on the success of a premiering television show. While the overnight metered market ratings provide a loose estimate of the show’s performance with households, they can never be fully trusted to forecast performance in the adults 18-49 demographic, that which is most valuable to advertiser-supported broadcast networks.
That especially holds true for a legal drama on NBC. Shows of the sort (“Harry’s Law” is the perfect example) often skew very old, which means that even a relatively-huge overnight number (reflective of overall viewership) can translate into a disappointing demographic figure. NBC, however, has shown a tendency to skew very young in other situations (“The Voice” and “The Office” to mind), and so a “good” or even “lukewarm” metered market rating may understate how well the show performed in the key demo.
It would thus be ill-advised to make too many early conclusions about Sunday’s two-hour premiere of “The Firm.”
4.4, the actual overnight rating for the show, fits right into that realm of “ambiguity.” If the show skews like “Harry’s Law” or a “Law & Order,” this is a disastrous rating. All signs thus point to the 4.4 translating to a weak demo performance, but because NBC does have a slew of young-skewing fare, one cannot be sure of the disappointment until the actual demo number hits.
One can, however, point to an alarming trend in how the show performed over the course of the two hours: it appears to have lost viewers from start-to-finish. Again, it is possible the trend revealed in the overnights will not hold up, but based on the half-hour breakdown (4.8, 4.3, 4.2, 4.2), it seems likely the show suffered a tune-out (and is unlikely to have gained viewers as the drama unfolded), which is never a good sign for a premiere. If curiosity alone cannot prompt viewers to stick with a premiere for two hours, things are not looking good for its ability to lure the original audience, plus their word-of-mouth recepients, back for future airings.
Believed to be a very inexpensive pickup for NBC, which reportedly ordered 22 episodes of the series before even airing the pilot, its ratings standards could not have been too lofty. And yet, insofar as the show’s regular timeslot is actually Thursday at 10PM, a slot that has been woeful for NBC these past two seasons, it would be hard to believe the show will have anywhere to go but down after Sunday.
