Lauren Alaina, Haley Reinhart Fight for Finale Spot on “American Idol”

For as much as “American Idol” judges and fans have enjoyed declaring “winners” in the last few rounds of the annual competition, the reality is that voting has become so fanbase-driven that there is not often a correlation, and certainly not a casual link, between performance quality in the top four, three and two rounds.

That is not to say song selection and ability do not matter this late in the game. But with so few “up for grabs” voters in the mix these days, their impact on the results comes via how they motivate fanbases to dial, text and click.

With that in mind, this year’s Top 3 “American Idol” show left significant uncertainty about who will advance.

On the one hand, Haley Reinhart again gave the night’s best performance, clearly coming off as a superior singer to Scotty McCreery and Lauren Alaina. But Haley was not necessarily at the top of her game–and even her vocal dominance over Lauren in particular was minimal–so it is not entirely clear she riled up her fans the way she has done in the past few weeks. With a Lauren-Scotty finale having come across as a likely outcome since very early in the season, will Haley be able to shakeup the game like Kris Allen? Or, will she become just another Syesha Mercado or Vonzell Solomon?

Things started out in a big way for Reinhart. Her take on Led Zeppelin’s “What is and What Should Never Be” started off as her best performance of the season, a remarkable accomplishment for someone who delivered show-defining renditions of numbers like “House of the Rising Sun” and “Moanin’.” Unfortunately, a mid-performance fall on stage was more than a temporary hiccup. Though the judges gave her credit for rebounding, the reality is that she seemed to lose her way on the track. The vocals went from being soulful and powerful to shrill and underwhelming, and the comfortable conneciton she displayed seemed to go out the window. Having her father on stage with a guitar helped keep her grounded, but she still lost control over what could definitely have been a game-changing moment in this competition. Still, this was a damn good performance!

Her latter two performances definitely carried less impact, although they were still “honest Haley” moments that could very well have clicked with her fanbase. Her “Rhiannon” was particularly underwhelming, with the verses failing to pop, the hook coming across as somewhat flat and the overall arrangement not playing to her vocal strengths–there was too much down time. The wind machine and odd movements were also quite polarizing; Haley fans likely appreciated the artistry and commitment to showmanship, but Haley doubters were likely wishing Simon Cowell was present to deliver cries of “self-indulgence.”

Not entirely her fault, the judges’ selection “You Oughta Know” is not the most family-friendly or endearing song and thus did little to help her compete with Lauren and Scotty as a cute, family-friendly contestant. Her struggle with the verses, notably the first one, also showed some humanity–when the arrangement is too fast for Haley to inject growls, runs and unique melody modifications, she is not always the smoothest singer. Still, the soaring choruses were delivered with near-perfection, and assuming Haley’s rebellious, gritty attitude towards music has garnered her overlap with fans of 1990s Alanis Morissette, the performance still might have helped her cause.

Inexperience can hurt
Held back by inexperience and strategic-savvy, Lauren Alaina opened the show on a down note with “Wild One,” delivering a nuance-free performance that lacked the energy of the original. With a gorgeous voice, Lauren never sounds BAD, but this was definitely not the song choice to convince doubters (and reassure her fans) that she is ready to represent “American Idol” as a legitimate music superstar. It was again a sign of her strategic inexperience–though her voice is very mature and polished for her age, she certainly lacks the mind and savvy of a seasoned veteran. Most of Lauren’s “free choice” picks are style-and-conviction over substance songs, exposing her weakness when it comes to ramping up the performance energy without giving her the chance to show off any sort of vocal brilliance.

Jimmy Iovine, however, righted her course with the excellent selection “If I Die Young”…sort of. From the get-go, Lauren has seemed tailor-made for a song by The Band Perry (as well as acts like Lady Antebellum), although critics who agreed (including Headline Planet) wondered whether the group’s mid-tempo, somewhat low-key (albeit often catchy and beautiful) would work for a contestant trying for that big “moment.” As demonstrated by his picks for Scotty (“Are You Gonna Kiss Me or Not”) and Haley (“Rhiannon”), Iovine seemed to be approaching his selections from the standpoint of a record producer rather than as an “Idol” coach.

Still, Lauren definitely shined for the bulk of the song, delivering a beautifully-powerful, yet cleverly-understated version of the country hit. Anyone who doubted Lauren Alaina’s value to mainstream radio was put to shame with this tremendous display from the contestant.

Unfortunately, she ran into a problem with a key change midway through the song, and the judges opted to latch onto it (again questioning the idea that they’re “biased” towards Lauren–many online bloggers missed the error the first time around, and it easily could have gone unnoticed), taking attention off what was otherwise a great showing.

Lauren closed the show with a beautiful rendition of “I Hope You Dance.” It again demonstrated the extent to which Lauren’s pure tone towers over the competition, but it still fell short of that “moment” Lauren needed. For as strong as she was overall Wednesday, she didn’t necessarily give her fans that “must-vote” performance (ala Kris Allen’s “Heartless” from two years ago), so her survival is going to come down to how much Lauren fans like Lauren being Lauren.

Demographically-brilliant
Since the Top 3 reveal last Thursday, it appeared it would take a major shocker for Scotty McCreery not to advance to finals. Regardless of what he did on stage, he has a very passionate fanbase, and as the only male remaining in the competition, he had a huge demographic advantage.

Nothing about Wednesday’s show changed that reality. Scotty was arguably the weakest of the performers, but he remained very likable and very intelligent about how he presented himself to voters. His “Amazed” was not the ultimate song choice from a country standpoint, but it was the tender, recognizable ballad his young female and family audiences are going to eat up. He sang it reliably and seemed convincing with his performance, opening the show on a very favorable foot. This could easily been a performance from an actual country-pop star.

Though an interesting fit, Jimmy’s selection “Are You Gonna Kiss Me or Not” ended up garnering mixed results from Scotty. His voice sounded current and interesting on the song, but he definitely seemed strained on the choruses. The arrangement also seemed a bit awkward, providing Scotty with some moments of minimal impact. No Scotty fan likely hated this performance, but it was neither the star-making nor the star-indicative performance Scotty probably wanted at this point in the game.

His “She Believes in Me,” the judges choice, started off phenomenally. His voice instantly popped with the song, and he seemed so genuine, controlled and poised with both his delivery and presence on stage. He definitely struggled once the song got into the big choruses, but it was not necessarily a “bad” struggle–something about the strain on this chorus seemed more appealing and friendly than it did with “Are You Gonna Kiss Me or Not.” His hand gestures still need some work–he occasionally falls into that ‘teenager trying to imitate Eminem in his mirror’ trap–but he definitely sold this performance and made people care. Even though Lauren and Haley were vocally stronger, Scotty’s conviction and personality kept him closely in the hunt.

Elimination Thoughts
If evaluated strictly from a performance standpoint, no one would really be surprised if Scotty left this week. He had some nice moments, but his overall delivery was safe and “pleasant” rather than risky and memorable.

But odds seem very good that he will survive, which makes this a battle between Lauren and Haley. Haley was a bottom three regular earlier this season; even when she started to click with performances like “Bennie and the Jets” and “Piece of My Heart,” no one was pegging her as a member of the final two. But Haley’s momentum has greatly built in recent weeks (fueled by consistently-great performances and rebellion due to a sense that the judges are unfair to her), and it is now at least comprehensible that she gets into the finale ahead of Lauren Alaina.

Song Choice Thoughts
It is worth noting that the judges and mentor picks seemed greatly improved this season. While not all were best-suited for the “Idol” stage (Jimmy’s, in particular, seemed to be based on the kind of material he would want the contestants to record rather than what would produce “moments” on stage), there at least appeared to be a degree of personalization that was not there in the Clive Davis/Simon Fuller era of song selection.

Performance Rankings
Round One:
1) Haley Reinhart
2) Scotty McCreery
3) Lauren Alaina

Round Two:
1) Lauren Alaina
2) Haley Reinhart
3) Scotty McCreery

Round Three:
1) Lauren Alaina
2) Scotty McCreery
3) Haley Reinhart

Cumulative Averages After 15 Performances
1) Lauren Alaina – 3.5
2) Haley Reinhart – 3.6
3) Scotty McCreery – 3.9