Dua Lipa’s “Break My Heart” is in contention to reach #1 on this week’s Mediabase pop radio airplay chart.
The “Don’t Start Now” follow-up received 2,446 spins on Sunday, which marked the start of the July 19-25 tracking period. Up 10% from last Sunday’s count, the tally slots “Break My Heart” at #1 on the Mediabase building/real-time pop chart.
Because the week is so young and because Sunday airplay can be erratic, it is too early to definitively predict that “Break My Heart” will reach #1. Nonetheless, the strong opening day and clear momentum definitely suggest “Break My Heart” has a chance.
To get there, it will have to hold off Harry Styles’ surging “Watermelon Sugar.” Credited with 2,215 spins on Sunday, the Harry Styles hit is #3 on the building/real-time chart (and likely to reach #2 within the next few days). It is also rising at a considerably faster rate; its spin count tops last Sunday’s mark by a whopping 18%.
If they remain on their current trajectories, “Break My Heart” will stay narrowly ahead of “Watermelon Sugar” as the week closes. “Watermelon Sugar” may, moreover, (slightly) slow down as radio prepares for a multi-week stint at #1 in the future. Still, this week’s race will be close. And even if “Break My Heart” ultimately earns #1, “Watermelon Sugar” could obviously take over as soon as next week.
Number two on the building chart, Trevor Daniel’s “Falling” is technically ahead of “Watermelon Sugar” right now. It nonetheless seems likely to fall behind. Having already hit #1 last week and potentially ceding spins to follow-up “Past Life,” the song has considerably less momentum. Whereas “Watermelon Sugar” and “Break My Heart” are respectively up 18% and 10% from last week’s mark, “Past Life” is up less than 2%.