Barring a mid-week surprise, this week’s US album sales race will come down to Florida Georgia Line’s “Dig Your Roots” and Barbra Streisand’s “Encore: Movie Partners Sing Broadway.”
Based on opening day sales data, Hits Daily Double expects FGL’s album to sell 130-135,000 pure US copies during the August 26-September 1 tracking period. “Encore” should sell 125-130,000.
Given that projections tend to be rough at this point in the week, “Encore” can definitely still close that gap.
Both acts also posted comparable sales totals for their previous albums. Florida Georgia Line’s “Anything Goes” opened with 197,000 in 2014; Streisand’s 2014 album “Partners” sold 196,000.
Since Florida Georgia Line’s album will be much more resonant in terms of Track Equivalent Albums (track sales/10) and Streaming Equivalent Albums (track streams/1500), “Dig Your Roots” holds a clearer lead in the race for #1 on the consumption-oriented Billboard 200. Total consumption is much harder to project early in the week, but Hits expects “Dig Your Roots” to generate at least 10-15,000 additional consumption units from TEA and SEA. “Encore” should only generate a few thousand.
Florida Georgia Line’s projected consumption advantage is, of course, predicated on the current sales projections proving reasonably accurate.
Frank Ocean’s “Blonde” should be a top performer on both charts, but it does not presently look like a threat for #1. The same goes for Britney Spears’ “Glory,” which is tracking for 90-95,000 pure US sales and a consumption total in the vicinity of 105-120,000.