Though “American Idol”‘s ratings have indeed fallen notably from the show’s peak, the reality juggernaut sent what some are viewing as a strong message to its doubters Wednesday night.
Depending on how one compares this year’s “Idol” semifinals to last year’s format, he can potentially make a case that Wednesday night’s telecast outdrew the equivalent telecast last season. That would clearly signal the minimal degree to which Simon Cowell’s departure has accelerated the show’s downward ratings trajectory.
Last year, in adherence to a semifinals format that had been utilized in four previous seasons, the semifinals kicked off with the top twelve males and top twelve females. Each week, two contestants of each gender were dropped, resulting in the Top 12 being revealed after three weeks of semifinals. The final semifinals performance was the Top 8 Males show on March 10, 2010.
For the current season, the show’s tenth, the semifinals were restricted to one week–the Top 12 Males and Top 12 Females will basically be halved in order to produce the group of finalists. So, this week’s two episodes technically compare to the March 9 and March 10 telecasts from 2010.
If one accepts that logic, the show built on last year’s 7.5 adults 18-49 rating and 20.47 million viewers with a 7.7 adults 18-49 rating and 22.58 million viewers.
Granted, it is not a certainty that analysts should accept that logic. Insofar as the overall “Idol” trend is downward from premiere week to the penultimate week of episodes, the fact that this season’s final semifinal round aired a week prior to last year’s might provide a year-over-year benefit. From 8-9:30PM, the March 3, 2010 telecast averaged an 8.4 rating in the young adults demo.
The March 10, 2010 telecast was also restricted to a single hour; “Idol” usually builds as it enters the second hour. Of course, that second hour is usually the 9-10PM hour, so one can just as easily say that last year’s telecast had the advantage of not dealing with lower viewership levels at 8PM and thus had its average inflated.
Regardless of the school of thought one accepts, it is clear that the loss of Simon Cowell did not significantly exacerbate the ratings fatigue “American Idol” has been experiencing over the past few seasons.
