The race between Madonna’s “Rebel Heart,” the official “Empire” soundtrack and Luke Bryan’s “Spring Break…Checkin’ Out” will be a very tight one.
Based on opening day and pre-order sales data, Hits Daily Double forecasts that Madonna’s new “Rebel Heart” will debut with a pure sales figure in the 100-110,000 range. The “Empire” soundtrack is set to follow with sales of roughly 90-100,000, while Luke Bryan’s latest spring break release looks safe for an 85-95,000 sales total.
Since projections at this point in the week come with a margin of error, it is far too early to decisively conclude that Madonna’s “Rebel Heart” will claim #1 on the Top Album Sales chart.
One definitely cannot make such a conclusion regarding the consumption-oriented Billboard 200 chart. According to Hits, the addition of Track Equivalent Album (10 single sales = 1 album sale) and Streaming Equivalent Album (1500 single streams = 1 album sale) into the mix will likely produce a consumption unit total of 115-125,000 for both the Madonna and “Empire” albums. Bryan’s release will follow with a consumption unit total of roughly 95-105,000.
Potentially enough for #1, a 105,000 sales figure for Madonna’s “Rebel Heart” would represent a massive decline from that of predecessor “MDNA.” That album moved 359,000 during its inaugural March 2012 frame.
A 95,000 opening total for “Empire” would position the “Empire” soundtrack within the same ballpark as the first “Glee” soundtrack release. That one debuted with 113,000 in November 2009.
“Spring Break 6…Like We Ain’t Ever,” Luke Bryan’s 2014 spring break EP, debuted with sales of 74,000. The previous year’s “Spring Break…Here to Party” compilation moved 150,000 first week copies.