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Big Sean Pacing for 125-135K Album Sales; Kid Rock to Challenge for #1 (Updated)

Big Sean and E-40 - Tonight Show (NBC Image)

Update: Sales projections for the new Big Sean and Kid Rock albums have both been upgraded, which means number one on the Top Album Sales chart remains very much up for grabs.

According to Hits Daily Double, Big Sean’s “Dark Sky Paradise” is now on pace to move 125-135,000 copies in its inaugural week. Kid Rock’s “First Kiss” looks like a safe bet for 120-130,000. Due to the overlap in those projections, the battle for #1 on the pure sales chart remains too close to call.

“Dark Sky Paradise” will, however, comfortably win the race for #1 on the Billboard 200. With track equivalent (10 single sales = 1 album sale) and SEA (1500 single streams = 1 album sale) data included, the Big Sean album should notch an opening week consumption unit total of 155-165,000. Kid Rock’s album is only expected to score a total of 125-135,000 first week consumption units.

Other hot albums this week:

“50 Shades of Grey” (projection: 65-70,000 pure sales, 90-100,000 total units), Drake’s “If You’re Reading This it’s Too Late” (projection: 55-60,000 pure sales, 90-100,000 total units), Chris Brown & Tyga’s “Fan of a Fan” (55-60,000 pure sales, 70-75,000 total units)
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While Big Sean’s “Dark Sky Paradise” is expected to comfortably top the consumption-based Billboard 200 chart, it will find itself in a tight race for #1 on the Top Album Sales chart.

According to Hits Daily Double, the rapper’s “Dark Sky Paradise” and Kid Rock’s “First Kiss” are pacing for similar opening week sales totals. Based on opening day sales data, Hits forecasts a 120-130,000 weekly bow for “Dark Sky Paradise” and a 120-125,000 start for “First Kiss.”

A clearer portrait will hopefully emerge in the Thursday and Friday tracking reports, but as of press time, the pure sales battle between “Dark Sky Paradise” and “First Kiss” is far too close to call.

The consumption battle appears to be skewing more definitively in the direction of “Dark Sky Paradise.” With track equivalent album (10 single sales = 1 album sale) and streaming equivalent album (1500 single streams = 1 album sale) data included, the Big Sean album should claim a consumption total of 140-150,000. Kid Rock’s “First Kiss” looks poised for a total in the 125-130,000 range.

Chris Brown & Tyga’s “Fan of a Fan: The Album,” the next-highest-profile release, looks set for an opening week sales total of 50-55,000. With TEA and SEA included, its consumption total should land in the 70-75,000 range.

Written by Brian Cantor

Brian Cantor is the editor-in-chief for Headline Planet. He has been a leading reporter in the music, movie, television and sporting spaces since 2002.

Brian's reporting has been cited by major websites like BuzzFeed, Billboard, the New Yorker and The Fader -- and shared by celebrities like Taylor Swift, Justin Bieber and Nicki Minaj.

Contact Brian at brian.cantor[at]headlineplanet.com.

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