The good news: even without the luxury of a high-profile at pop radio, John Mayer remains very capable of moving albums.
The bad news: opening sales for his new release “Paradise Valley” will fall notably short of those for predecessor “Born and Raised.”
Continuing Mayer’s downward album sales trend, “Valley” is pacing for 150,000 opening week sales, according to the latest projections from Billboard. While very solid for an album in today’s marketplace, especially given the lack of a hit single in the promotional campaign, it represents a sizable drop from the 219,000 copies 2012’s “Born and Raised” moved in its debut.
Prior to that, Mayer’s 2009 chart-topping release “Battle Studies” opened with 286,000 first week purchases, which marked a slight decline from the 300,186 opening week for 2006’s definitive Mayer record “Continuum.”
Despite their downward trend, both “Battle Studies” and “Born and Raised” opened at number one on the Billboard 200. Assuming Luke Bryan’s holdover “Crash My Party” does not completely tank in its second week, Mayer’s newest album will likely miss out on the chart’s pinnacle. A debut of at least number two appears certain, however.
— Other Billboard sales projections: 65K for TGT’s “3 Kings” and 55K for Jimmy Buffett’s “Songs from St. Somewhere.”