Based on opening day data, Ariana Grande’s “Sweetener” should make a big splash on this week’s US album cahrts.
Hits Daily Double expects “Sweetener” to sell 110-125,000 pure US copies during the August 17-23 tracking period. With TEA (track sales/10) and SEA (track streams/1250 for paid services + track sales/3750 for free services), the album should generate 200-225,000 in overall consumption.
The pure sales tally should be enough for #1 on the Billboard Top Album Sales chart, while the consumption tally would likely yield a #1 debut on the Billboard 200. The one “x factor” is the late Aretha Franklin’s “30 Greatest Hits.” Projections are not yet available for that album, which is receiving a big consumption boost in the wake of Franklin’s passing.
Based on its Thursday performance, however, “30 Greatest Hits” would have a tough time matching the “Sweetener” projections for the August 17-23 tracking week. As such, “Sweetener” is the frontrunner for #1 on the key Billboard charts.
“Sweetener” is the follow-up to Grande’s 2016 album “Dangerous Woman,” which earned #2 on both charts. It debuted with 129K US sales and 175K total US units.
“My Everything” and “Yours Truly,” Grande’s prior two albums, both debuted at #1 in the United States.