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Ariana Grande’s “Sweetener” Pacing For 110-125K US Sales, 200-225K Total US Units

Early projections have arrived for Ariana Grande’s “Sweetener.”

Ariana Grande on Fallon | Andrew Lipovsky/NBC

Based on opening day data, Ariana Grande’s “Sweetener” should make a big splash on this week’s US album cahrts.

Hits Daily Double expects “Sweetener” to sell 110-125,000 pure US copies during the August 17-23 tracking period. With TEA (track sales/10) and SEA (track streams/1250 for paid services + track sales/3750 for free services), the album should generate 200-225,000 in overall consumption.

The pure sales tally should be enough for #1 on the Billboard Top Album Sales chart, while the consumption tally would likely yield a #1 debut on the Billboard 200. The one “x factor” is the late Aretha Franklin’s “30 Greatest Hits.” Projections are not yet available for that album, which is receiving a big consumption boost in the wake of Franklin’s passing.

Based on its Thursday performance, however, “30 Greatest Hits” would have a tough time matching the “Sweetener” projections for the August 17-23 tracking week. As such, “Sweetener” is the frontrunner for #1 on the key Billboard charts.

“Sweetener” is the follow-up to Grande’s 2016 album “Dangerous Woman,” which earned #2 on both charts. It debuted with 129K US sales and 175K total US units.

“My Everything” and “Yours Truly,” Grande’s prior two albums, both debuted at #1 in the United States.

Written by Brian Cantor

Brian Cantor is the editor-in-chief for Headline Planet. He has been a leading reporter in the music, movie, television and sporting spaces since 2002.

Brian's reporting has been cited by major websites like BuzzFeed, Billboard, the New Yorker and The Fader -- and shared by celebrities like Taylor Swift, Justin Bieber and Nicki Minaj.

Contact Brian at brian.cantor[at]headlineplanet.com.

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