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Shawn Mendes’ “Illuminate” Sales Projection Rises; Album Pacing For Dominant #1

Shawn Mendes [Bell Media Photo]

Going into the September 23-29 tracking week, little doubt existed that Shawn Mendes’ “Illuminate” would take #1 on the Top Album Sales and Billboard 200 charts.

The only question concerned how well it will perform.

Saturday’s projections — 100-105,000 in pure US sales, 120-125,000 in total consumption — suggested it would perform on par with Mendes’ previous album “Handwritten” (106,000 US sales, 119,000 consumption units in its first week).

Tuesday’s Hits Daily Double projections paint an even more favorable portrait. It now appears “Illuminate” will comfortably outperform “Handwritten” in both columns.

The album is now expected to sell 117-122,000 pure US copies. The inclusion of TEA (track sales/10) and SEA (track streams/1500) should yield a first-week consumption tally of 135-140,000.

While the projected TEA and SEA lift has been lowered, the overall consumption projection is obviously a good deal higher than it was Saturday.

Barring a surprise release, “Illuminate” is a lock for #1 on Top Album Sales and the Billboard 200. Its closest competition from a pure sales standpoint will likely come from Luke Bryan’s “Here’s To The Farmer.” Hits has the country superstars’ new EP selling 29-33,000 first-week copies.

Drake’s “Views” (~49-53,000 total units) and “Suicide Squad: The Album” (~44-48,000) are the likely candidates for #2 on the consumption chart.

Written by Brian Cantor

Brian Cantor is the editor-in-chief for Headline Planet. He has been a leading reporter in the music, movie, television and sporting spaces since 2002.

Brian's reporting has been cited by major websites like BuzzFeed, Billboard, the New Yorker and The Fader -- and shared by celebrities like Taylor Swift, Justin Bieber and Nicki Minaj.

Contact Brian at brian.cantor[at]


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