It is no longer a lock that Ariana Grande’s “Dangerous Woman” will claim #1 on the Top Album Sales or Billboard 200 charts.
On the sales front, her album will face tight competition from Blake Shelton’s new “If I’m Honest.” Early data gives “Dangerous Woman” the slight edge, but Hits Daily Double ultimately projects both to sell about 120-130,000 US albums this week.
An opening week sales total in the 120-130,000 range would be the lowest posted by an Ariana Grande album; her previous release “My Everything” sold 169,000 in its first week, while her debut “Yours Truly” shifted 138,000.
It would also be short of industry expectations. Sources initially felt “Dangerous Woman” could reach 200,000 in its first week. The forecast was later revised to 150,000.
A 120-130,000 figure, meanwhile, would represent an album-to-album gain for Shelton, whose previous album “Bringing Back The Sunshine” sold 101,000.
“Dangerous Woman” should handily defeat “If I’m Honest” from a consumption perspective (album sales + track sales/10 + track streams/1500) — Grande’s album is pacing for 150-170,000 units, while “If I’m Honest” is on track to drive 130-140,000 in consumption — but it may not be able to dethrone Drake’s “Views.”
The streaming powerhouse generated what Hits estimates as 240,621 in total consumption units this past week. While the number will likely fall during the current week, will it fall enough to vacate the #1 position on the Billboard 200 consumption chart.