Katy Perry’s single hot streak did not propel sales of her “Teenage Dream” to record levels, but the buzz behind the edgy-pop singer’s new album will prove enough to secure the record number one debut this week.
Based on one day sales extensions, Hits Daily Double forecasts Perry’s “Teenage Dream” will garner sales of about 200,000 in its first week, more than enough for number one. While the figure is impressive for an artist in her genre and marks a significant upgrade from 2008’s “One of the Boys” (less than 50,000 first week sales), it is not necessarily reflective of the magnitude of her single success.
Perry’s “Boys” produced Top 10 singles in “I Kissed a Girl,” “Hot N Cold” and “Waking Up in Vegas” and a solid performer in “Thinking of You.” “California Gurls” and title track “Teenage Dream,” meanwhile, have already broken out as smash hits for the latest album, rendering Perry the hottest female pop act this summer.
Since performing under Katy Perry, the artist’s success has consistently been about the power of her singles–despite its tame opening in 2008, “One of the Boys” ultimately went platinum due to the persistent sizzle of her recordings. The hope is that “Teenage Dream” will show similar longevity–with 200,000 sales likely to be in the bag by next week, it already has a sizable head start.
Perry’s closest competitor among new releases was predictable, but the level of that competition far exceeds expectations. Likely fueled by media interest in her overdose, Fantasia’s “Back to Me” will open with a strong 120-130,000 first-week units, nearly in-line with 2006’s “Fantasia” despite dwindling celebrity and an almost-universal decline of interest in albums from “Idol” alumni.
Little Big Town’s “The Reason Why” should follow with 40-45,000 first week sales, competing on the same playing field as Usher’s “Versus” EP.
Never Shout Never’s “Harmony” is pacing for 25-30,000, Randy Rogers Band’s “Burning the Day” should land at 24-27,000 and The Devil Wears Prada’s “Zombie” EP will start at 20,000.
That’s a pathetic opening number but reflects what generic, bland fm radio fodder her material is. Even with Clear Channel priority for all her singles no-one is interested. One article I read earlier this year was lauding “California Girls” as the most played song on the radio in years, as if Clear Channel throwing your single on high rotation because they’ve been payed off is some kind of achievement.
That assessment is incorrect. Her single success goes beyond airplay–“California Gurls” spent many weeks as the most-downloaded track online, and “Teenage Dream” is up there right now. Clearly, it’s not listeners being bombarded with Katy Perry against their will–they like her stuff.
I do agree that 200,000 is pretty weak given her hype and level of saturation, although for whatever reason, that sort of pop act just isn’t selling. If you look at the people dominating single sales and airplay–Jason DeRulo, Taio Cruz, BoB, etc–virtually none of them are selling albums. Rihanna would fall into this category as well.
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