Nick Jonas [ABC]
Nick Jonas’ “Last Year Was Complicated” is pacing to rank as the week’s best-selling new release.
It may also post a stronger opening week total than his previous, self-titled album.
Based on its opening day performance, Hits Daily Double expects “LYWC” to sell 42-47,000 pure US copies during its first week of release. Released in the fall of 2014, his previous album sold 37,000.
“Last Year Was Complicated” should rank as the week’s #1 new release, with Jon Bellion’s new “The Human Condition” potentially representing the #2 new offering (Hits projects a sales total of ~30-35,000).
It is too early, however, to assume that a 42-47,000 bow would be enough for #1 on the overall Top Album Sales chart. Beyonce’s “Lemonade” may land just below that range (and thus represent a threat if “LYWC” slows down as the week progresses), while the “Hamilton” cast recording could enter the mix following Sunday’s Tony Awards.
— While it is a contender for #1 on the pure sales chart, “LYWC” will not challenge for #1 on the Billboard 200 consumption listing (pure sales + track sales/10 + track streams/1500). Drake’s “Views” is expected to remain on top for a seventh straight week. The TEA/SEA bump may not bring “LYWC” past 60,000 in weekly consumption units; “Views” could have another six-figure week.