Barring a mid-week surge, Fifth Harmony’s new album “7/27” will sell fewer copies than 2015’s “Reflection.”
Using opening day sales data, Hits Daily Double projects Fifth Harmony’s sophomore album to sell 47-52,000 pure US albums during the May 27-June 2 tracking period. The aforementioned “Reflection” sold 62,000 copies in its first week.
The album consumption climate has changed greatly even in the year-and-a-half since the release of “Reflection” — streaming has gained considerably more prominence (Apple Music streaming did not even exist when “Reflection” debuted), and many popular acts are posting softer-than-anticipated pure sales totals.
On the other hand, Fifth Harmony’s profile has grown considerably since the release of “Reflection.” “Worth It,” the most successful “Reflection” track, did not blow up until after that album had been released. Fifth Harmony’s most recent single (and lead “7/27” track) “Work From Home” is the group’s biggest hit yet.
While it is too early to project exactly where “7/27” will land on the weekly US album sales chart, it is safe to say it will not be the week’s best-selling debut. That honor will belong to Dierks Bentley’s “Black,” which is pacing to sell 80-85,000 pure US copies this week.
Of note: “Black” is markedly outselling Bentley’s previous album “Riser,” which sold 63,000 US copies in its first week. The sales climate may be changing, but it is not inevitable that albums released in 2016 will sell fewer copies than their predecessors.
Thanks to gains from track equivalent albums (track sales/10) and streaming equivalent albums (track streams/1500), “7/27” will greatly close the gap in total consumption, but its projected unit total of 70-75,000 will still trail those of both the Bentley album (projected at 85-90,000) and “Reflection” (80,000).
The consumption race, which defines position on the Billboard 200, will likely belong to Drake’s “Views.” A specific projection is not yet available, but it will surely generate a six-figure weekly total.