Taylor Swift is a nominee in three of the “Big Four” categories at this year’s Grammy Awards.
Oddsmakers expect her to win two of those races.
According to the latest lines from Bovada, Swift’s “1989” is the clear favorite for Album Of The Year. Her “Blank Space,” meanwhile, is the favorite for Song Of The Year.
The lines also peg Meghan Trainor and Mark Ronson’s “Uptown Funk (featuring Bruno Mars)” as likely “Big Four” victors. The former is a favorite in the race for Best New Artist, while the latter is heavily favored in the Record Of The Year category.
The accuracy of the odds will be revealed during Monday’s 58th Annual Grammy Awards ceremony. The three-and-a-half-hour broadcast begins at 8PM ET/5PM PT.
Recent history provides reason to take the lines seriously. It also provides reason to question the oddsmakers’ ability to go four-for-four. Four of the previous five Grammy Awards ceremonies featured at least one major upset in a Big Four race. The 2013 ceremony featured a slight upset in the Record Of The Year battle.
In 2015, Beck’s “Morning Phase,” which had the fourth-longest odds, won Album Of The Year. It defeated betting favorite “Beyonce” (by Beyonce).
2014 saw Daft Punk’s “Random Access Memories,” the third-longest selection, win for Album Of The Year. Macklemore & Ryan Lewis’ “The Heist” was the clear favorite.
As noted, the 2013 ceremony featured a slight upset in the Record Of The Year battle. Gotye’s “Somebody That I Used To Know” bested fun’s narrowly favored “We Are Young.”
2012 featured an upset in the Best New Artist race. The oddsmakers anticipated a Nicki Minaj victory, but it was Bon Iver — the #2 pick — who accepted the trophy.
The 2011 ceremony was a rough one for oddsmakers; upsets occurred in each of the “Big Four” races. Arcade Fire’s “The Suburbs” topped Eminem’s convincingly favored “Recovery” for Album Of The Year. Greatly underestimated by the lines, Lady Antebellum’s “Need You Now” won both Song and Record Of The Year, besting Eminem’s favored “Love The Way You Lie” for Record and Cee-Lo’s favored “F**k You” for Song. “Need You Now” was given the longest odds in the latter race.
That ceremony also featured Esperanza Spalding’s famous upset victory for Best New Artist. She was given the least chance by oddsmakers, who were confident Justin Bieber would be the one accepting the trophy.
Odds for this year’s show (as of 6:45PM ET) and those of the past few ceremonies follow. (For those unfamiliar, odds work as follows: negative number = how much you have to bet to win $100 | positive number = how much you win if you bet $100)
Album of the Year – 2016
Taylor Swift’s 1989: -250 (favorite)
Kendrick Lamar’s To Pimp A Butterfly: +300
Alabama Shakes’ Sound & Color: +750
The Weeknd’s Beauty Behind The Madness: +1200
Chris Stapleton’s Traveller: +2000
2015
Beyonce’s Beyonce: +125 (favorite)
Sam Smith’s In The Lonely Hour: +175
Ed Sheeran’s x: +425
Beck’s Morning Phase: +700 (winner)
Pharrell Williams’ GIRL: +1000
2014
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis’ The Heist: -200 (favorite)
Kendrick Lamar’s Good Kid, MAAD City: +450
Daft Punk’s Random Access Memories: +500 (winner)
Taylor Swift’s Red: +900
Sara Bareilles’ The Blessed Unrest: +1200
2013
Mumford And Sons’ Babel: -250 (favorite) (winner)
The Black Keys’ El Camino: +250
Frank Ocean’s Channel Orange: +1000
fun.’s Some Nights: +1000
Jack White’s Blunderbuss: +1500
2012
Adele’s 21: -400 (favorite) (winner)
Bruno Mars’ Doo-Woops & Hooligans: +500
Foo Fighters’ Wasting Light: +700
Lady Gaga’s Born This Way: +1000
Rihanna’s Loud: +1500
2011
Eminem’s Recovery: -200 (favorite)
Lady Gaga’s The Fame Monster: +250
Arcade Fire’s The Suburbs: +400 (winner)
Katy Perry’s Teenage Dream: +700
Lady Antebellum’s Need You Now: +1000
Record Of The Year – 2016
Mark Ronson’s Uptown Funk: -500 (favorite)
Taylor Swift’s Blank Space: +600
The Weeknd’s Can’t Feel My Face: +600
Ed Sheeran’s Thinking Out Loud: +1400
D’Angelo & The Vanguard’s Really Love: +2500
2015
Sam Smith’s Stay With Me: -110 (favorite) (winner)
Sia’s Chandelier: +325
Iggy Azalea’s Fancy ft. Charli XCX: +400
Taylor Swift’s Shake It Off: +450
Meghan Trainor’s All About That Bass: +1500
2014
Daft Punk’s Get Lucky ft. Pharrell: +125 (favorite) (winner)
Lorde’s Royals: +175
Bruno Mars’ Locked Out Of Heaven: +500
Imagine Dragons’ Radioactive: +600
Robin Thicke’s Blurred Lines ft. Pharrell & TI: +1200
2013
fun.’s We Are Young ft. Janelle Monae: +150 (favorite)
Gotye’s Somebody That I Used To Know: +175 (winner)
The Black Keys’ Lonely Boy: +450
Kelly Clarkson’s Stronger: +650
Taylor Swift’s We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together: +1000
Frank Ocean’s Thinking Bout You: +1200
2012
Adele’s Rolling In The Deep: -350 (favorite) (winner)
Mumford And Sons’ The Cave: +450
Bruno Mars’ Grenade: +750
Bon Iver’s Holocene: +750
Katy Perry’s Firework: +1500
2011
Eminem’s Love The Way You Lie ft. Rihanna: even (favorite)
Jay-Z’s Empire State Of Mind ft. Alicia Keys: +130
Lady Antebellum’s Need You Now: +500 (winner)
BoB’s Nothin On You ft. Bruno Mars: +500
Cee-Lo Green’s F**K You: +600
Song Of The Year – 2016
Taylor Swift’s Blank Space: -140 (favorite)
Ed Sheeran’s Thinking Out Loud: +200
Wiz Khalifa’s See You Again ft. Charlie Puth: +600
Kendrick Lamar’s Alright: +900
Little Big Town’s Girl Crush: +2000
2015
Sam Smith’s Stay With Me: -130 (favorite) (winner)
Hozier’s Take Me To Church: +350
Sia’s Chandelier: +500
Taylor Swift’s Shake It Off: +600
Meghan Trainor’s All About That Bass: +900
2014
Lorde’s Royals: +125 (favorite) (winner)
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis’ Same Love: +200
Pink & Nate Ruess’ Just Give Me A Reason: +500
Bruno Mars’ Locked Out Of Heaven: +500
Katy Perry’s Roar: +1200
2013
fun.’s We Are Young ft. Janelle Monae: +125 (favorite) (winner)
Carly Rae Jepsen’s Call Me Maybe: +160
Kelly Clarkson’s Stronger: +400
Ed Sheeran’s The a Team: +700
Miguel’s Adorn: +1000
2012
Adele’s Rolling In The Deep: -500 (favorite) (winner)
Kanye West’s All Of The Lights ft. Rihanna & Kid Cudi: +400
Mumford And Sons’ The Cave: +700
Bruno Mars’ Grenade: +2000
Bon Iver’s Holocene: +2000
2011
Cee-Lo Green’s F**k You: +150 (favorite)
Ray LaMontagne’s Beg, Steal or Borrow: +300
Miranda Lambert’s The House That Built Me: +300
Eminem’s Love The Way You Lie ft. Rihanna: +300
Lady Antebellum’s Need You Now: +350 (winner)
Best New Artist – 2016
Meghan Trainor: -125 (favorite)
James Bay: +200
Sam Hunt: +500
Courtney Barnett: +800
Tori Kelly: +2000
Last Year
Sam Smith: -700 (favorite) (winner)
Bastille: +1000
Brandy Clark: +1200
Iggy Azalea: +1200
HAIM: +1500
2014
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis: -300 (favorite) (winner)
Kendrick Lamar: +700
Kacey Musgraves: +700
Ed Sheeran: +900
James Blake: +1000
2013
Frank Ocean: +175 (co-favorite)
fun.: +175 (co-favorite) (winner)
Hunter Hayes: +250
The Lumineers: +500
Alabama Shakes: +1500
2012
Nicki Minaj: even (favorite)
Bon Iver: +250 (winner)
The Band Perry: +275
J. Cole: +650
Skrillex: +1200
2011
Justin Bieber: -110 (favorite)
Florence + The Machine: +175
Mumford And Sons: +300
Drake: +500
Esperanza Spalding: +650 (winner)