A premise is a premise, and though this version of the “white house under attack” concept featured a proven draw in Channing Tatum, it will not perform better at the box office.
In fact, there is a chance that despite Tatum’s (and Jamie Foxx’s) presence, a bigger budget and a summer release, “White House Down” will debut to a weaker box office mark than March’s “Olympus Has Fallen.”
Expected to earn in the $10 million neighborhood Wednesday, “Down” should be on a track for a weekend in the $25-30 million range. If it lands in the low end of that range, it will fall short of the $30.4 million grossed in “Olympus”‘ opening weekend.
Because late tracking was soft for “White House Down,” some media sources prepared for the weak opening and are thus refraining from calling the film a flop. But the reality is that the film came with twice the budget, a more desirable release date and more marketable stars and yet will not outperform “Olympus.” That is a disappointment by any reasonable assessment.
Though studio sources might have insisted otherwise, when push came to shove, moviegoers clearly saw “White House Down” in the same light as “Olympus Has Fallen” and thus saw no extra incentive to attend.
On the positive front, female-skewing “The Heat” is expected to overperform with as much as $40 million in weekend receipts. Fronted by the likable duo of Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy, the film only scored decent reviews but seems poised for a clear second place finish behind holdover champ “Monsters University.”
Expected to gross in the mid-$30 millions, “World War Z” should top “Down” for third place. “Man of Steel” will follow the Tatum film for fifth.