When a film’s excitement reaches a certain magnitude, it becomes nearly impossible to predict the weekend box office.
Sure, everybody knows “The Avengers” is going to do monster numbers at the domestic box office this weekend, but how well can anyone truly narrow down that “monster” label? No one has projected less than $130-140 million, some have said it could easily set the weekend box office record of $170 million and even flirt with $180-200 million, but no one knows for sure.
The first wave of box office data makes the more optimistic projections seem unattainable, although it will not be until late Friday night that a clearer picture emerges. But with a midnight screening tab of only $18.7 million, which is less than that collected by “The Hunger Games” earlier this spring and only eighth on the all-time list, it seems interest might not quite be at the “domestic opening weekend record” level.
The mark for “The Hunger Games” is important, however, because it shows how midnight grosses will not always tell the full story. “Hunger Games” was only seventh on the all-time list with $19.7 million but then went onto place third all-time for its $150 million+ opening weekend.
Superhero films, moreover, do not perform as well in midnight showings as many would believe. The true top performers in late night have been female and young-adult skewing fare the aforementioned “Hunger Games” and films from the “Twilight” and “Harry Potter” franchises.
If word-of-mouth is a factor, and that is no absolute guarantee given how many people were likely going to see “Avengers” regardless, it would be favorable. The movie is easily the best reviewed in the superhero genre since “The Dark Knight.”