His “Battle Studies” might not have received the acclaim of predecessor “Continuum,” but it will not disappoint in its effort to top the charts.
Hits Daily Double projections, based on one day sales, forecast the Mayer album debuting atop the charts with about 275,000-300,000 units moved. The figure will give Mayer’s album a clear advantage over crowded competition from new albums and holdovers.
Among new albums, Norah Jones’ “The Fall” will duke it out with 50 Cent’s “Before I Self Destruct” for the next position (both should be in the 140-160,000 range, although 50’s sales are harder to forecast due to the early iTunes release last week). Casting Crowns’ “Until the Whole World Hears” should land in similar territory.
Parlaying single “One Time”‘s performance momentum into a solid album performance, teen star Justin Bieber’s “My World” is looking good for 110-120,000.
Not everyone, however, had a good week. “American Idol”‘s Kris Allen will debut with the worst opening sales week of any winner in the show’s eight season history; his self-titled release is tracking for just 85-90,000. A disappointment made prematurely obvious by the soft sales for lead single “Live Like We’re Dying,” the figure makes Allen an easy target for runner-up Adam Lambert, whose debut album drops next week. Lambert’s album, similarly, would be considered a bomb if it did not reach 100,000 first week sales.
New rock supergroup “Them Crooked Vultures” will be close behind with 75-80,000 for their self-titled release, a strong figure for a modern supergroup even accounting for the impressive Foo Fighters/Queens of the Stone Age/Led Zeppelin lineage of the members.
Joining Allen on the disappointing front, however, is Leona Lewis. Her “Echo,” sans a mega-hit single like “Bleeding Love” or the fairly successful “Better in Time,” will debut with just 60-65,000.
It similarly might be too late for album buyers to apologize to OneRepublic; the Ryan Tedder-fronted band’s “Waking Up” will land in 40-45,000 territory.