Update 2: Selena Gomez’ “Revival” is still expected to top the Billboard 200, but it will be involved a tighter than expected race on the pure sales chart.
Hits Daily Double now projects a 75-80,000 opening week sales total for both Gomez’ “Revival” and The Game’s “The Documentary 2.” That represents a downgraded range for “Revival” (originally projected for 75-85,000) and an upgraded prediction for “Documentary 2” (originally projected for 60-70,000).
Aided by strong individual track sales (particularly for its two official singles), Gomez’ album is nonetheless expected to post a greater overall consumption total. With Track Equivalent Albums (10 single sales = 1 album equivalent unit) and Streaming Equivalent Albums (1500 single streams = 1 album equivalent unit) included, Hits now expects “Revival” to shift 100-110,000 total consumption units in its first week. “The Documentary 2” is on track to for 85-90,000 units.
A win in the consumption race would earn “Revival” the #1 spot on the BB200.
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Update: While Hits Daily Double has yet to issue a revised number, Billboard offers a more optimistic opening week projection for Selena Gomez’ “Revival” — at least as far as total consumption goes.
The music publication believes “Revival” may move upwards of 110,000 consumption units (album sales + track sales/10 + track streams/1500) in its inaugural week of release.
Hits initially projected a first-week consumption total of 85-95,000 units, with 75-85,000 coming from pure sales.
Focused only on total consumption, Billboard’s report did not include a specific projection for the album’s opening week pure sales total.
Insofar as Billboard expects The Game’s “The Documentary 2” to shift about 90,000 consumption units, “Revival” definitely looks like a safe bet to top the Billboard 200.
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While The Game’s “The Documentary 2” currently holds the top spot on the US iTunes store, Selena Gomez’ “Revival” looks like it will win the overall sales race.
Based on opening day sales, Hits Daily Double projects a 75-85,000 opening week pure sales total for “Revival.” Game’s “Documentary” sequel is on track to sell 60-70,000.
With six days remaining in the October 9-15 tracking week, closing the gap is not an impossible endeavor for Game’s album. As it stands, however, Gomez’ “Revival” is expected to claim #1 on Top Album Sales.
It should also lead the consumption-oriented Billboard 200. With Track Equivalent Albums (10 single sales = 1 album equivalent unit) and Streaming Equivalent Albums (1500 single streams = 1 album equivalent unit) included, Hits expects “Revival” (benefiting greatly from TEA) to claim a first-week consumption total of 85-95,000 units. Game’s album (benefiting greatly from SEA) will likely generate 75-85,000 first-week consumption units.
“Stars Dance,” Gomez’ previous release, debuted at #1 on the then-sales-only Billboard 200. It sold 97,000 copies in its first week. Game’s previous album “Jesus Piece” debuted with 86,000 sales.