In a situation mirroring last month’s infamous “Rebel Heart” vs. “Empire” battle, the album pacing to rank as the week’s best seller will not debut atop the Billboard 200 chart.
Per Hits Daily Double, All Time Low’s new “Future Hearts” is on track to move the greatest number of traditional copies this week. Current projections call for an opening week bow in the 62-67,000 range.
The “Furious 7” soundtrack, which is pacing for #2 in the pure sales race, is expected to move 50-55,000 copies.
Thanks to a dramatically greater boost from Track Equivalent Albums (10 single sales = 1 album sale) and Streaming Equivalent Albums (1500 single streams = 1 album sale), the latter album will, nonetheless, achieve a convincing victory in the consumption race.
That race, which ranks albums based on the sum of their pure sales, TEA and SEA, informs the revamped Billboard 200 chart.
Hits Daily Double projects that the addition of TEA and SEA data will lift the “Furious 7” consumption unit total to 95-100,000 units. Insofar as the TEA boost from “Furious 7” single “See You Again” alone might exceed 40,000 (due to the possibility that weekly sales will exceed 400,000), Hits’ impressive projection is actually a conservative one.
TEA and SEA will provide a decidedly more modest boost for “Future Hearts.” The All Time Low album will likely debut with a consumption unit total of 67-72,000.
No other album is expected to compete with “Future Hearts” and “Furious 7 ” this week.
Kendrick Lamar’s “To Pimp a Butterfly,” Taylor Swift’s “1989” and the “Empire” soundtrack are expected to rank as the next best performers in the pure sales race, but none is expected to move even 30,000 copies this week.
Maroon 5’s “V,” Taylor Swift’s “1989” and the “50 Shades of Grey” soundtrack, which will most closely follow “Furious 7” and “Future Hearts” in the consumption race, are not projected to score weekly totals in excess of 50,000 units.