Thanks to a depleted star profile and limited mainstream radio excitement, not to mention the monster shadow cast by Eminem’s “The Marshall Mathers LP 2,” Avril Lavigne debuted her self-titled album to very limited fanfare.
The result will be the weakest opening sales frame of her career.
“Avril Lavigne,” which, like the Eminem album, hit the shelves Tuesday, will move roughly 40-45,000 units its inaugural week according to estimates from Hits Daily Double. A far cry from the 381,000 and 289,000 respective debut totals for 2004’s “Under My Skin” and 2007’s “The Best Damn Thing,” the estimated total will even trail that of 2011’s “Goodbye Lullaby.”
Considered a commercial disappointment at the time, “Lullaby” moved 87,000 units in its first week. Her 2002 debut “Let Go,” meanwhile, opened to the tune of 62,000.
If the projection holds, the new album will rank as the week’s third-best debut. Eminem’s dominant “MMLP2” is still expected to open in the 700-750,000 range, while Celine Dion’s “Loved Me Back to Life” looks safe for 70-80,000.
Hits Daily Double’s other debut-week estimates include 27-30,000 for Pentatonix’s “PTX, Volume 2,” 18-20,000 for The Wanted’s “Word of Mouth,” 14-16,000 for Il Divo’s “A Musical Affair,” 14-16,000 for James Blunt’s “Moon Landing,” 14-16,000 for Jake Miller’s “Us Against Them” and 12-14,000 for MIA’s “Matangi.”