Will Taylor Swift's "Shake it Off" fall short of Ariana Grande's "Problem?"

Update 2: According to an updated sales forecast, “Shake it Off” is on track to debut with at least 475,000 first week sales.

Update: While Billboard and Hits Daily Double, which both posted the 425-450,000 sales forecast Wednesday, have yet to issue a revised number, real-time trending data suggests first week “Shake it Off” sales will exceed that projection. Taylor Swift’s new song should, therefore, score the best opening week total of 2014.
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The first wave of projections made it clear Taylor Swift’s “Shake it Off” would not garner as many first-week downloads as her 2012 release “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together.”

In targeting a bow in the 500,000 ballpark, they nonetheless suggested Swift was set to score the year’s best opening week sales total.

That is no longer a lock.

Both Billboard and Hits Daily Double are now forecasting an opening week sales bow in the 425-450,000 range. If it lands in the bottom half of that range, the “Shake it Off” sales figure will trail the 438,000 earned by Ariana Grande’s “Problem (featuring Iggy Azalea)” this spring.

Given the unique nature of the release, it would not be remotely surprising if that forecast changes as the week progresses. What now appears clear, however, is the fact that Taylor Swift’s “Shake it Off” will debut well but not at a level unattainable by other pop superstars.

“Shake it Off” is the lead single from upcoming album “1989.” Her fifth full-length release, it is the first to be firmly positioned as a “pop” album.

“We are Never Ever Getting Back Together,” which launched the “Red” era, moved 623,000 copies in its first week of release.

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