Updated: Deadline’s estimates turned out to be off the mark, with “Cowboys & Aliens” notably earning less than was first reported. “The Smurfs” actually took the top spot Friday — details on the real numbers here.
Projections for “Cowboys & Aliens” were all over the map ahead of Friday’s opening, which makes it difficult to say how the anticipated $17 million Friday haul compares to expectations.
Deadline, which reported the likely $17 million opening day, says the studio had a “lowball” projection of $45 million for the weekend, but some industry analysts had been eyeing as little as $30 million for the first three days.
Either way, three things are clear: the opening weekend figure, which appears to be tracking at the studio’s forecast of $45 million, will look soft in comparison to the massive budget, the gross will not reflect the star power behind and in front of the camera, and yet “Cowboys & Aliens” will claim the top spot at the weekend box office.
Forecasted at $32 million for the weekend based on a $12 million opening, “The Smurfs” looks set to overperform. Projections were looking for a debut in the mid-$20 millions.
Deadline, meanwhile, says romantic comedy “Crazy Stupid Love” earned $6 million Friday and is on track for a weekend in the $19 million territory. Consistent with expectations, the anticipated total nonetheless indicates that the warm reviews (currently at 73 on Rotten Tomatoes) created minimal late buzz.
Finke over at Deadline was dead wrong with her original projections, Cowboys & Aliens will be the biggest flop of the summer and Smurfs will end up taking top spot.
It still weird that everyone is predicting Aliens to beat the Smurfs even after Friday’s takings.
Corrected data here: https://www.headlineplanet.com/home/2011/07/30/updated-the-smurfs-overperforms-at-box-office-tops-cowboys-aliens-friday/