Multiple sources have latched onto box office tracking for this weekend, which speculates that “Super 8” will struggle to move higher than the $30 million mark in its box office debut.
While that would typically be viewed as a disappointment for a summer blockbuster, Paramount executives have conveyed to reporters, with coverage by Deadline and THR, that a debut figure similar to the $26 million for “Bridesmaids” would be acceptable due to the film’s modest $50 million budget. Confident that word-of-mouth will keep the film on moviegoers’ minds for weeks after the premiere, Paramount is hoping for a trajectory more akin to a “True Grit” or the aforementioned “Bridesmaids” than a tentpole like “Pirates of the Caribbean” or “Thor.”
Profitability aside, numerous analysts and competing studios have criticized “Super 8” for holding back details on the mysterious “creature” that is presumably central to the plot. Recent trailers have given more substance away, but there is still a great deal of secrecy in order to preserve some creative punch for the movie-going experience.
It, of course, is unclear that straying from secrecy is the right call for this type of film. After all, the somewhat-similar “Cloverfield,” which was produced by “Super 8” writer-director JJ Abrams, arguably gave even less away ahead of its $40 million weekend bow.
But if one brings that point up, he also has to bring up the fact that “Cloverfield”‘s secrecy generated a pre-release buzz more powerful than that of “Super 8.” Predictably, “Cloverfield” saw a major drop-off in its second weekend–falling to just $12.7 million–a retention far weaker than what Paramount wants and expects from “Super 8.”
